La crise de l'EURO

31 Mai 2014 , Rédigé par Laurence B Publié dans #Économie

Europe and the euro

A troubled union
There’s something wrong with Europe. No one can agree what.

IS THE euro crisis over*? To judge from how often the words appear in global media (down by three-quarters between early* 2012 and early 2014), the answer is yes. Markets have calmed since July 2012, when the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi, promised to do “whatever it takes”* to save the euro. Ireland and now Portugal are climbing out* of their bail-out* programmes. Even* Greece, where the crisis began, has just sold debt.
Over = terminé
Three-quarters = trois-quarts
Early = début
To do “whatever it takes” = faire tout ce qui est en son pouvoir
To climb = monter (to climb out of = sortir de)
To bail out = renflouer
Even = même
To sell debt = liquider une dette

Yet*, as* these books all argue, the crisis was always about more than whether* financial markets would buy government debt*. It raised broad worries over how countries with widely differing levels of prosperity, competitiveness, public spending and taxes*, and regulation* of labour* and product markets, could share* a currency* without economic shocks blowing them apart*. And it was about whether euro-zone voters would accept low growth*, high unemployment* and a permanent loss* of sovereignty to the centre. None of these concerns has been fully* dealt with.
Yet = cependant
As = comme
To argue = témoigner, argumenter
Whether = si oui ou non
Government debt = la dette gouvernementale
To raise = lever, soulever
Broad = large, général
Taxes = les impôts
Regulation = règlement, règlementation
Labour = travail
To share = partager
A currency = une devise
To blow apart = faire voler, faire sauter
Low growth = faible croissance
High unemployment = taux de chômage élevé
A loss = une perte
Fully = entièrement
To deal with = traiter de, s’occuper de

Jean Pisani-Ferry, who now works in the French prime minister’s office*, was director of Bruegel, an influential Brussels think-tank* during the crisis. His careful and persuasive book is an extensive updating* of an essay published in French in 2011. And, although he is a supporter of the euro and of European integration, he describes thoroughly* the hugely* expensive mistakes made by Europe’s leaders.
Prime minister’s office = le bureau du premier ministre
Think-tank = groupe/ cellule de réflexion
An updating = mise à jour, actualisation
Thoroughly = tout à fait, absolument, complètement
Hugely = extrêmement, énormément

The biggest error was to misunderstand* the underlying* causes of the crisis. Because the first victim was Greece, it became accepted wisdom* in Brussels (and Berlin) that the problem was profligate* spending and borrowing*. The Germans liked this explanation because it confirmed the suspicions they had before the creation of the euro that they might be lumbered* with other countries’ debts. It also looked susceptible to a gratifyingly simple cure*: ever more fiscal austerity. And it avoided* any suggestion that Germany might have contributed to the crisis by running a large current account* surplus that its banks recycled in cheap* loans* to Mediterranean property developers.
To misunderstand = mal comprendre, comprendre de travers
Underlying = sous-jacent, profond
Wisdom = la sagesse, opinion (répandues)
Profligate = débauché, dissolu
To borrow = emprunter
To lumber with = se taper, se farcir
A cure = un remède, une guérison
To avoid = éviter
A current account = un compte courant
Cheap = bon marché
A loan = un prêt, un emprunt

Mr Pisani-Ferry offers a challenging alternative hypothesis. Suppose that the crisis had begun, as it might easily have done, in Ireland? It would then have been obvious* that fiscal irresponsibility was not the culprit*: Ireland had a budget surplus and very low debt*. More to blame* were economic imbalances, inflated* property prices and dodgy* bank loans. The priority should not have been tax rises* and spending cuts*, but reforms to improve* competitiveness and a swift* resolution of troubled* banks, including German and French ones, that lent* so irresponsibly.
Obvious = évident
The culprit = le coupable
A low debt = une faible dette
To blame = accuser
Imbalance = déséquilibre
Inflated = gonflé, excessif
Dodgy = douteux, précaire
Tax rises = la hausse des impôts
Spending cuts = diminution des dépenses
To improve = améliorer
Swift = rapide
Troubled = en difficulté
To lend – I lent – lent = prêter

Philippe Legrain, who once* worked for The Economist, was another close observer of the euro crisis, as an economic adviser* to the European Commission president, José Manuel Barroso. His conclusions are similar to Mr Pisani-Ferry’s, if more stridently* expressed. He is particularly good on (and particularly scathing* about) the shortcomings* of his own institution and the ECB. He is not popular in Brussels or Frankfurt.
Once = une fois
An adviser = un conseiller
Stridently = à grands cris
Scathing = cinglant (au sujet de)
Shortcoming = défaut

Mr Legrain argues that Europe should have tackled* its banks’ problems much sooner than mid-2012, when it decided to create a (still incomplete) banking union. A big reason why America has recently grown faster* than Europe is that it did more to sort out* its banks in 2008-09. Mr Legrain is also right to criticise the ECB for its half-hearted* bond* purchased before July 2012, when it finally emerged as a proper lender* of last resort*. Only in the second part of his book, when he moves into broader* topics* such as education, innovation, climate change and democracy, culminating in his call* for a “European spring*”, are his arguments sometimes less persuasive.
To tackle = s’attaquer à
Faster = plus vite (que)
To sort out = régler, arranger, mettre de l’ordre dans
Half-hearted = peu enthousiaste, tiède, timide
Bond = engagement, contrat
To purchase = acheter
A lender = un prêteur
Of last resort = en dernier recours
Broader = plus large
A topic = un sujet
A call = un appel
Spring = printemps

Both authors agree that the aftermath* of the crisis is an unsatisfactory one that may not endure*. Even if markets do not turn sour* again, most of Europe seems stuck* with low growth, high unemployment (especially for young people) and a horrible debt burden*. The risk of a “lost decade” similar to Japan’s in the 1990s is worryingly high. Worst of all* is the broad disillusion of voters with the entire European project, which will be expressed in this month’s European elections through big gains for populist and extremist parties.
The aftermath = les suites/ conséquences
To endure = rester, durer
To turn sour = tourner à l’aigre
Stuck = bloqué, coincé
A burden = fardeau, charge, poids
Worst of all = le pire (de tout)

Roger Bootle has similarly gloomy* concerns about the state of the European project, but his conclusions strike* a far more Euro-sceptical tone. He wants to reduce the role of Brussels and enhance* that of governments, with a call to “renationalise Europe”. He also believes that Britain, where David Cameron is threatening* to hold* an in/out referendum by 2017, is well-placed to push an agenda* of reforms that turns the European project into little more than a somewhat* expanded* free-trade area*—and that, if he does not succeed, Britain should leave the club.
Gloomy = sombre, morose, déprimant
To strike = toucher, frapper
To enhance = accroître, étendre, augmenter
To threaten = menacer
To hold = tenir
An agenda = un ordre du jour, un programme
Somewhat = quelque peu, un peu
Expanded = élargi
Free-trade area = une zone de libre échange

What is striking* is how much the authors agree about the failings* of the EU and the euro, which is stuck in a half-completed house. Where they differ is in the solutions they propose. Europhiles want deeper* integration and more centralised powers. That was proposed this spring by the German-led Glienicker group and by the French-led Eiffel Europe group. It is also backed by Loukas Tsoukalis, a Greek academic, in an essay, “The Unhappy State of the Union”, published by London-based Policy Network.
Striking = frappant
Failings = les défauts
Deep = profond, large

Yet few voters feel warmly about ever closer union; many would agree with Mr Bootle that this aspiration of the original Treaty of Rome should be formally ditched*. Nor do many welcome ever greater intrusion by Brussels and Frankfurt into domestic politics. A more plausible idea, backed by Mr Legrain, is to restore greater freedom to national governments but reinstate* the principle that they will not be rescued* by the centre if they get into trouble.
To ditch = abandonner, laisser tomber
To reinstate = rétablir (dans ses fonctions)
Rescued = sauvé

The biggest worry may stem* from the perception that the crisis is over. This is likely* to slow or even stop further reforms. If that happens, the EU and the euro will get into trouble again—and the outcome* next time could be even worse.
To stem from = provenir de, découler de
This is likely = il est probable que
The outcome = résultat

From The Economist

May 17th 2014